Vale of Glamorgan
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Vale of Glamorgan? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the average of the YouGov and More in Common MRPs, which differs from the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Plaid Cymru narrowly ahead in Vale of Glamorgan, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
YouGov (26 September 2026) and More in Common (21 September 2026) disagree here, so we averaged them:
Reform UK 26.8% · Conservative 22.6% · Labour 22.5% · Plaid Cymru 16.9% · Green 5.2% · Liberal Democrats 2.7% · Restore Britain 2.6% · Others 0.9%
MRP prediction
- Plaid Cymru
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Labour
- Green
- Restore Britain
- Liberal Democrats
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 7.1% | 23% |
| Reform UK | 15.2% | 22% |
| Conservative | 29.5% | 21% |
| Labour | 38.7% | 20% |
| Green | 4.1% | 6% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 4% |
| Liberal Democrats | 3.5% | 3% |
| Others | 1.9% | 1% |
Plaid Cymru predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: Plaid CymruWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.