Torfaen
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Torfaen? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Reform UK narrowly ahead in Torfaen, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
15,176 votes (42.5%)
Nick Thomas-SymondsLabourElected
15,176 votes · 42.5%
Ian WilliamsReform UK
7,854 votes · 22%
Nathan EdmundsConservative
5,737 votes · 16.1%
Matthew JonesPlaid Cymru
2,571 votes · 7.2%
Philip DaviesGreen
1,705 votes · 4.8%
Brendan RobertsLiberal Democrats
1,644 votes · 4.6%
Lee DunningIndependent
881 votes · 2.5%
MRP prediction
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Plaid Cymru
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 22% | 29% |
| Labour | 42.5% | 22% |
| Plaid Cymru | 7.2% | 20% |
| Conservative | 16.1% | 12% |
| Green | 4.8% | 7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 4.6% | 4% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 4% |
| Others | 2.9% | 1% |
Reform UK predicted to win
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.