South Derbyshire
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in South Derbyshire? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Labour narrowly ahead in South Derbyshire, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
17,734 votes (38.8%)
Samantha NiblettLabourElected
17,734 votes · 38.8%
Heather WheelerConservative
13,566 votes · 29.7%
Job WestReform UK
8,979 votes · 19.6%
Lucy CareLiberal Democrats
2,134 votes · 4.7%
Aruhan GalievaGreen
1,941 votes · 4.2%
Amy WheeltonIndependent
1,200 votes · 2.6%
MRP prediction
- Labour
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 38.8% | 28% |
| Reform UK | 19.6% | 27% |
| Conservative | 29.7% | 24% |
| Green | 4.2% | 10% |
| Liberal Democrats | 4.7% | 5% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 4% |
| Others | 3% | 1% |
Labour predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.