South Basildon and East Thurrock
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in South Basildon and East Thurrock? Conservative is best placed to beat Reform UK. This is based on the latest YouGov MRP, which differs from the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Reform UK winning South Basildon and East Thurrock.
The best-placed party to beat Reform is
YouGov (26 September 2026) and More in Common (21 September 2026) MRPs both point to Conservative, which differs from the last election result.
MRP prediction
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Labour
- Green
- Restore Britain
- Liberal Democrats
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 30.8% | 43% |
| Conservative | 25.7% | 20% |
| Labour | 30.5% | 17% |
| Green | 4.3% | 7% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2.7% | 3% |
| Others | 6% | 3% |
Reform UK predicted to win
Best placed to beat Reform: Conservative
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.