Runcorn and Helsby
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
Reform currently holds the seat but with under 50% of the vote - vulnerable to being unseated.
Who can beat Reform in Runcorn and Helsby? Labour is best placed to beat Reform UK. This is based on the 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Labour narrowly ahead in Runcorn and Helsby, within the margin of error.
The best-placed party to beat Reform is
12,639 votes (38.7%)
Sarah PochinReform UKElected
12,645 votes · 38.72%
Karen ShoreLabour
12,639 votes · 38.7%
Sean HoulstonConservative
2,341 votes · 7.17%
Chris CopemanGreen
2,314 votes · 7.09%
Paul DuffyLiberal Democrats
942 votes · 2.88%
Dan ClarkeLiberal Party (UK, 1989)
454 votes · 1.39%
Michael WilliamsIndependent
363 votes · 1.11%
MRP prediction
- Labour
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 38.7% | 37% |
| Reform UK | 38.7% | 26% |
| Conservative | 7.2% | 14% |
| Green | 7.1% | 12% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2.9% | 6% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 5.4% | 1% |
Labour predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.