Orpington

2024 United Kingdom general election · 4 July 2024

Medium impact for tactical voting against Reform UK

Everything else - Reform is neither close behind, dominant, nor irrelevant here.

Who can beat Reform in Orpington? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Conservative winning Orpington.

It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is

17,504 votes (38%)

MRP prediction

Conservative
Reform UK
Labour
Liberal Democrats
Green
Restore Britain
Others

Predicted vote share by party
Party	2024 general election	26 Sep 2026
Conservative	38%	37%
Reform UK	19.3%	23%
Labour	26.9%	16%
Liberal Democrats	10.3%	13%
Green	5%	7%
Restore Britain	0%	3%
Others	0.5%	1%

MRP date

Conservative

37% (31–43%)

Reform UK

23% (17–28%)

Labour

16% (12–20%)

Liberal Democrats

13% (8–20%)

Green

7% (4–11%)

Restore Britain

3% (1–5%)

Others

1% (0–3%)

Conservative predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd

Best placed to beat Reform: Conservative

Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.