North Ayrshire and Arran
Low impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
Reform's vote share was under 10% - too far back for tactical voting to matter much here.
Who can beat Reform in North Ayrshire and Arran? SNP looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the latest YouGov MRP, which differs from the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has SNP narrowly ahead in North Ayrshire and Arran, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
YouGov (26 September 2026) and More in Common (21 September 2026) MRPs both point to SNP, which differs from the last election result.
MRP prediction
- SNP
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| SNP | 31.4% | 35% |
| Reform UK | 8.1% | 23% |
| Labour | 39.8% | 18% |
| Conservative | 14.1% | 10% |
| Green | 3.1% | 7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2.4% | 4% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 1.1% | 1% |
SNP predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: SNPWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.