Newport West and Islwyn
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Newport West and Islwyn? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Reform UK narrowly ahead in Newport West and Islwyn, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
17,409 votes (41.5%)
Ruth JonesLabourElected
17,409 votes · 41.5%
Paul TaylorReform UK
8,541 votes · 20.4%
Nick JonesConservative
6,710 votes · 16%
Brandon HamPlaid Cymru
3,529 votes · 8.4%
Mike HamiltonLiberal Democrats
2,087 votes · 5%
Kerry VosperGreen
2,078 votes · 5%
George EtheridgeIndependent
1,597 votes · 3.8%
MRP prediction
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Plaid Cymru
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 20.4% | 29% |
| Labour | 41.5% | 24% |
| Plaid Cymru | 8.4% | 18% |
| Conservative | 16% | 13% |
| Green | 5% | 8% |
| Liberal Democrats | 5% | 4% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 3.8% | 1% |
Reform UK predicted to win
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.