Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat has Reform less than 10 points behind the predicted winner - close enough that tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the average of the YouGov and More in Common MRPs, which differs from the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Labour narrowly ahead in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
YouGov (26 September 2026) and More in Common (21 September 2026) disagree here, so we averaged them:
Conservative 31.2% · Labour 28.9% · Reform UK 22.9% · Green 6.9% · Liberal Democrats 6.0% · Restore Britain 3.9% · Others 1.4%
MRP prediction
- Labour
- Conservative
- Reform UK
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 43.3% | 31% |
| Conservative | 42.7% | 30% |
| Reform UK | 0% | 20% |
| Green | 3.8% | 9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.3% | 6% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 5% |
| Others | 4.8% | 1% |
Labour predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 3rd
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.