Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat has Reform less than 10 points behind the predicted winner - close enough that tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Labour narrowly ahead in Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
16,238 votes (47.2%)
MRP prediction
- Labour
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 47.2% | 33% |
| Reform UK | 20.5% | 29% |
| Conservative | 17.9% | 15% |
| Green | 4.4% | 12% |
| Liberal Democrats | 3% | 5% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 4% |
| Others | 6.9% | 2% |
Labour predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.