Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Reform UK narrowly ahead in Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
15,791 votes (44.8%)
Gerald JonesLabourElected
15,791 votes · 44.8%
Gareth ThomasReform UK
8,344 votes · 23.7%
Francis Daniel WhitefootPlaid Cymru
4,768 votes · 13.5%
Amanda JennerConservative
2,687 votes · 7.6%
Jade SmithLiberal Democrats
1,276 votes · 3.6%
David GriffinGreen
1,231 votes · 3.5%
Anthony ColeWorkers Party of Britain
531 votes · 1.5%
Lorenzo De GregoriIndependent
375 votes · 1.1%
MRP prediction
- Reform UK
- Plaid Cymru
- Labour
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 23.7% | 30% |
| Plaid Cymru | 13.5% | 29% |
| Labour | 44.8% | 19% |
| Conservative | 7.6% | 7% |
| Green | 3.5% | 6% |
| Liberal Democrats | 3.6% | 3% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 3.2% | 1% |
Reform UK predicted to win
Best placed to beat Reform: Plaid CymruWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.