Louth and Horncastle
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Louth and Horncastle? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Reform UK narrowly ahead in Louth and Horncastle, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
17,441 votes (37.5%)
Victoria AtkinsConservativeElected
17,441 votes · 37.5%
Sean MatthewsReform UK
11,935 votes · 25.7%
Jonathan SlaterLabour
10,475 votes · 22.5%
Robert WatsonGreen
2,504 votes · 5.4%
Ross PepperLiberal Democrats
2,364 votes · 5.1%
Paul HugillIndependent
1,359 votes · 2.9%
MRP prediction
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Labour
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 25.7% | 37% |
| Conservative | 37.5% | 31% |
| Labour | 22.5% | 15% |
| Green | 5.4% | 7% |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.1% | 6% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 3.8% | 2% |
Reform UK predicted to win
Best placed to beat Reform: ConservativeWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.