Hertsmere
Medium impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
Everything else - Reform is neither close behind, dominant, nor irrelevant here.
Who can beat Reform in Hertsmere? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Conservative winning Hertsmere.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
21,451 votes (44.7%)
Oliver DowdenConservativeElected
21,451 votes · 44.7%
Josh TapperLabour
13,459 votes · 28%
Darren SelkusReform UK
6,584 votes · 13.7%
Emma MatanleLiberal Democrats
3,710 votes · 7.7%
John HumphriesGreen
2,267 votes · 4.7%
Ray BolsterIndependent
536 votes · 1.1%
MRP prediction
- Conservative
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Liberal Democrats
- Green
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 44.7% | 44% |
| Reform UK | 13.7% | 18% |
| Labour | 28% | 17% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.7% | 9% |
| Green | 4.7% | 8% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 1.1% | 1% |
Conservative predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: Conservative
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.