Carlisle
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Carlisle? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Reform UK narrowly ahead in Carlisle, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
18,129 votes (39.4%)
Julie MinnsLabourElected
18,129 votes · 39.4%
John StevensonConservative
12,929 votes · 28.1%
Stephen WardReform UK
9,295 votes · 20.2%
Brian WernhamLiberal Democrats
2,982 votes · 6.5%
Gavin HawktonGreen
1,922 votes · 4.2%
MRP prediction
- Labour
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 39.4% | 29% |
| Reform UK | 20.2% | 29% |
| Conservative | 28.1% | 22% |
| Green | 4.2% | 9% |
| Liberal Democrats | 6.5% | 7% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 1.6% | 1% |
Reform UK predicted to win
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.