Cardiff South and Penarth
Medium impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
Everything else - Reform is neither close behind, dominant, nor irrelevant here.
Who can beat Reform in Cardiff South and Penarth? Plaid Cymru looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the average of the YouGov and More in Common MRPs, which differs from the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Plaid Cymru winning Cardiff South and Penarth.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
YouGov (26 September 2026) and More in Common (21 September 2026) disagree here, so we averaged them:
Plaid Cymru 24.8% · Labour 24.6% · Green 19.3% · Reform UK 12.3% · Conservative 10.8% · Liberal Democrats 4.6% · Restore Britain 2.7% · Others 0.5%
MRP prediction
- Plaid Cymru
- Labour
- Green
- Reform UK
- Conservative
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 8.2% | 34% |
| Labour | 44.5% | 17% |
| Green | 14.5% | 17% |
| Reform UK | 11.5% | 14% |
| Conservative | 13.9% | 10% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.4% | 5% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 1% |
| Others | 0% | 1% |
Plaid Cymru predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 4th
Best placed to beat Reform: Plaid Cymru
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.