Caerphilly
Medium impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
Everything else - Reform is neither close behind, dominant, nor irrelevant here.
Who can beat Reform in Caerphilly? Plaid Cymru looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the latest YouGov MRP, which differs from the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Plaid Cymru narrowly ahead in Caerphilly, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
YouGov (26 September 2026) and More in Common (21 September 2026) MRPs both point to Plaid Cymru, which differs from the last election result.
MRP prediction
- Plaid Cymru
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 21.2% | 45% |
| Reform UK | 20.3% | 25% |
| Labour | 38% | 11% |
| Conservative | 11.5% | 7% |
| Green | 4.3% | 5% |
| Liberal Democrats | 4.7% | 3% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 0% | 1% |
Plaid Cymru predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: Plaid CymruWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.