Birmingham Erdington
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat predicts Reform will win it - tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Birmingham Erdington? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Reform UK narrowly ahead in Birmingham Erdington, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
14,774 votes (43.7%)
Paulette HamiltonLabourElected
14,774 votes · 43.7%
Jack BrookesReform UK
7,755 votes · 22.9%
Steve KneeConservative
5,402 votes · 16%
Karen TrenchGreen
2,452 votes · 7.3%
Shaukat AliIndependent
2,250 votes · 6.7%
Farzana AslamLiberal Democrats
1,128 votes · 3.3%
MRP prediction
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 22.9% | 32% |
| Labour | 43.7% | 30% |
| Conservative | 16% | 14% |
| Green | 7.3% | 12% |
| Liberal Democrats | 3.3% | 4% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 4% |
| Others | 6.8% | 3% |
Reform UK predicted to win
Best placed to beat Reform: LabourWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.