Aylesbury
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat has Reform less than 10 points behind the predicted winner - close enough that tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Aylesbury? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the latest YouGov MRP, which differs from the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Conservative narrowly ahead in Aylesbury, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
YouGov (26 September 2026) and More in Common (21 September 2026) MRPs both point to Conservative, which differs from the last election result.
MRP prediction
- Conservative
- Labour
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Green
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 28.9% | 24% |
| Labour | 30.2% | 20% |
| Liberal Democrats | 20.9% | 20% |
| Reform UK | 13.5% | 20% |
| Green | 5.2% | 11% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 1.2% | 1% |
Conservative predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: ConservativeWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.