Arundel and South Downs

2024 United Kingdom general election · 4 July 2024

Medium impact for tactical voting against Reform UK

Everything else - Reform is neither close behind, dominant, nor irrelevant here.

Who can beat Reform in Arundel and South Downs? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Conservative winning Arundel and South Downs.

It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is

22,001 votes (40.2%)

MRP prediction

Conservative
Liberal Democrats
Reform UK
Labour
Green
Restore Britain
Others

Predicted vote share by party
Party	2024 general election	26 Sep 2026
Conservative	40.2%	36%
Liberal Democrats	18%	19%
Reform UK	13.5%	19%
Labour	17.9%	12%
Green	10.1%	10%
Restore Britain	0%	2%
Others	0.3%	1%

MRP date

Conservative

36% (30–42%)

Liberal Democrats

19% (12–28%)

Reform UK

19% (13–25%)

Labour

12% (8–17%)

Green

10% (7–14%)

Restore Britain

2% (1–5%)

Others

1% (0–1%)

Conservative predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd

Best placed to beat Reform: Conservative

Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.