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Aberdeen South

2026 Aberdeen South by-election · 18 June 2026

Low impact Low impact for tactical voting against Reform UK

Reform's vote share was under 10% - too far back for tactical voting to matter much here.

Who can beat Reform in Aberdeen South? Conservative looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has SNP narrowly ahead in Aberdeen South, within the margin of error.

It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is

14,308 votes (49.5%)

MRP prediction

0%10%20%30%40%50%2026 Aberdeen South by-election26 Sep 2026
  • SNP
  • Conservative
  • Reform UK
  • Labour
  • Green
  • Liberal Democrats
  • Restore Britain
  • Others
Predicted vote share by party
Party2026 Aberdeen South by-election26 Sep 2026
SNP28.6%27%
Conservative49.5%21%
Reform UK8.6%17%
Labour5.4%15%
Green3.4%10%
Liberal Democrats4.4%6%
Restore Britain0%4%
Others0.2%1%
SNP
27% (18–36%)
Conservative
21% (16–27%)
Reform UK
17% (11–24%)
Labour
15% (10–20%)
Green
10% (4–17%)
Liberal Democrats
6% (2–11%)
Restore Britain
4% (1–7%)
Others
1% (0–3%)

SNP predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 3rd

Best placed to beat Reform: SNPWithin the poll's margin of error

Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.

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