Aberafan Maesteg
High impact for tactical voting against Reform UK
The latest MRP poll for this seat has Reform less than 10 points behind the predicted winner - close enough that tactical voting may be needed to keep Reform out.
Who can beat Reform in Aberafan Maesteg? Labour looks best placed to keep Reform UK out. This is based on the 2024 United Kingdom general election result. The latest YouGov MRP prediction has Plaid Cymru narrowly ahead in Aberafan Maesteg, within the margin of error.
It looks like the best-placed party to keep Reform out is
17,838 votes (49.9%)
MRP prediction
- Plaid Cymru
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Conservative
- Green
- Liberal Democrats
- Restore Britain
- Others
| Party | 2024 general election | 26 Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 13.2% | 33% |
| Reform UK | 20.9% | 30% |
| Labour | 49.9% | 20% |
| Conservative | 8.1% | 6% |
| Green | 3.1% | 5% |
| Liberal Democrats | 2.6% | 3% |
| Restore Britain | 0% | 3% |
| Others | 2.2% | 1% |
Plaid Cymru predicted to win · Reform UK predicted 2nd
Best placed to beat Reform: Plaid CymruWithin the poll's margin of error
Source: YouGov MRP, 26 September 2026. An MRP is a model-based estimate from polling, not an election result.